← All toysWeek 1Week 12
Jumbo Pop Fidget Board
Peaked last quarter. Eighty-eight sellers are now competing on price for a shrinking market.
Fidget · sells for $12.99 · costs us $2.40 · 1,200 in stock
22/ 100Avoid
Twelve weeks of signal
Mentions are what people are talking about. Units are what they actually bought. Hover the chart, or use arrow keys, to read any week.
Week 12Mentions1,950,Units sold160
- Mentions, last week
- 1,950
- Mention growth
- -70%
- Units, last week
- 160
- Sales growth
- -64%
Why it scored 22
Three factors, each out of 100, each weighted. Growth is measured over the first and last 4 weeks.
Trend15 × 0.5 = 7.6
Mentions down 70% over 12 weeks. Flat would score 50.
Demand40 × 0.3 = 12.0
Selling 200 units a week. 500 a week would score 100.
Competition12 × 0.2 = 2.4
88 other sellers. Each one costs a point off 100.
Total22.0 / 100
How many to order
Cover 8 weeks of demand, minus what is already in the warehouse, rounded up to whole cartons.
- Selling nowAverage units per week over the last 4 weeks
- 200 / week
- Trend adjustmentSales growth of -64%, capped at ±50%
- -50%
- Forecast demand200 × 0.50
- 100 / week
- Needed for 8 weeks100 × 8
- 800
- Already in stockOn hand in the warehouse
- − 1,200
- ShortfallAlready covered — nothing to order
- -400
Order
0 units
0 cartons · $0 at cost
What this leaves out
- The data is made up. Real mentions come from a social listening feed, real units from the marketplace.
- No seasonality. A toy demo that ignores Christmas is a demo, not a buying system.
- No supplier lead time or safety stock — the 8-week cover is a flat assumption.
- The three weights and two thresholds are judgement calls, meant to be argued with.