ToyTrend — what to buy, and how many

Twelve weeks of signal

Mentions are what people are talking about. Units are what they actually bought. Hover the chart, or use arrow keys, to read any week.

Week 12Mentions7,100Units sold215

Week 1Week 12

Three factors, each out of 100, each weighted. Growth is measured over the first and last 4 weeks.

Trend100 × 0.5 = 50.0

Mentions up 403% over 12 weeks. Flat would score 50.

Demand34 × 0.3 = 10.1

Selling 169 units a week. 500 a week would score 100.

Competition66 × 0.2 = 13.2

34 other sellers. Each one costs a point off 100.

Total73.3 / 100

Cover 8 weeks of demand, minus what is already in the warehouse, rounded up to whole cartons.

Order

1,650 units

33 cartons · $18,810 at cost

The data is made up. Real mentions come from a social listening feed, real units from the marketplace.
No seasonality. A toy demo that ignores Christmas is a demo, not a buying system.
No supplier lead time or safety stock — the 8-week cover is a flat assumption.
The three weights and two thresholds are judgement calls, meant to be argued with.