← All toysWeek 1Week 12
Dinosaur Dig Excavation Kit
A shelf staple. No trend to speak of, but it sells the same volume every week.
STEM · sells for $24.99 · costs us $7.20 · 900 in stock
50/ 100Watch
Twelve weeks of signal
Mentions are what people are talking about. Units are what they actually bought. Hover the chart, or use arrow keys, to read any week.
Week 12Mentions2,750,Units sold250
- Mentions, last week
- 2,750
- Mention growth
- +6%
- Units, last week
- 250
- Sales growth
- +7%
Why it scored 50
Three factors, each out of 100, each weighted. Growth is measured over the first and last 4 weeks.
Trend53 × 0.5 = 26.6
Mentions up 6% over 12 weeks. Flat would score 50.
Demand47 × 0.3 = 13.9
Selling 233 units a week. 500 a week would score 100.
Competition48 × 0.2 = 9.6
52 other sellers. Each one costs a point off 100.
Total50.1 / 100
How many to order
Cover 8 weeks of demand, minus what is already in the warehouse, rounded up to whole cartons.
- Selling nowAverage units per week over the last 4 weeks
- 233 / week
- Trend adjustmentSales growth of +7%, capped at ±50%
- +7%
- Forecast demand233 × 1.07
- 249 / week
- Needed for 8 weeks249 × 8
- 1,988
- Already in stockOn hand in the warehouse
- − 900
- ShortfallRounded up to cartons of 50
- 1,088
Order
1,100 units
22 cartons · $7,920 at cost
What this leaves out
- The data is made up. Real mentions come from a social listening feed, real units from the marketplace.
- No seasonality. A toy demo that ignores Christmas is a demo, not a buying system.
- No supplier lead time or safety stock — the 8-week cover is a flat assumption.
- The three weights and two thresholds are judgement calls, meant to be argued with.